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Low mortgage rates just got lower
July 7, 2010

Home buyers and homeowners seeking to refinance now can lock in the most affordable home-loan deals in nearly four decades, economists say.

“Home loan interest rates for all but traditional 1-year adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) hit all-time record lows in our Primary Mortgage Market Survey,” noted Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist.

Benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage rates dipped to a record-low 4.69 percent in late June from 4.75 percent a week earlier, according to Freddie Mac.

It is the lowest average 30-year fixed loans have been since April of 1971 when President Richard Nixon was in the White House. Last year at this time, the 30-year fixed loans averaged 5.42 percent.

Fifteen-year fixed mortgages dipped to an average of 4.13 percent in late June from 4.20 percent. It is the lowest average 15-year fixed loans have been since September of 1991, when Freddie Mac began surveying this mortgage type.

A year ago at this time, the 15-year fixed loans averaged 4.87 percent.

However, if you are planned to buy a home or refinance, better hurry. The record low rates likely will not last.

Economists with the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) predict 30-year fixed mortgage rates are likely to rise to 5.4 percent during the fourth quarter of 2010, reach 6 percent in late 2011 and skyrocket as high as 6.6 percent range by late 2012.

Although the world of mortgageland is unpredictable and volatile, the MBA predictions are likely to come true. Few of today’s novice borrowers remember that 11 years ago in August of 1999, lenders were quoting 8.15 percent on a 30-year fixed mortgage.

To appreciate today’s historically low rates, housing experts say home buyers need only to look at what banks and mortgage lenders where charging in the early 1980s.

According to Freddie Mac, benchmark 30-year mortgage rates peaked at a whopping 18.45 percent in October of 1981 during the last Great Recession. Rates fell below 10 percent in April of 1986, then bounced in the 9-percent to 10-percent range during the balance of the 1980s.

Along with record low mortgage rates, economists note that there is increasing evidence that the housing market is stabilizing in many parts of the country as sale increase. Home resale prices have remained stubbornly low, but that could change.

The RE/MAX Northern Illinois real estate network noted that the market for larger move-up homes priced from $300,000 to $700,000 is rebounding in the Chicago area.

This year, move-up homes are selling in greater numbers, with sales during the January through May period 37 percent higher than last year, noted Jim Merrion, regional directory of RE/MAX.

Illinois Association of Realtors is forecasting that median home prices in the Chicago area soon will start to rise, and so will apartment rents.

“Evidence of some upward pressure on rental prices may provide some longer-term benefit for the housing market,” predicted Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, an economist at the University of Illinois.

“With little or no [construction] funding available for new apartment units, rent increases may provide some incentives for renters to consider house purchases over the course of the year,” Hewings said.

Don DeBat’s weekly real estate column is syndicated by DeBat Media Services.

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